Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-20T00:29:48

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been largely at Moderate levels in the past 24 hours following the CME that arrived on the 16th, the associated magnetic cloud progressively charging the radiation belts. Increased geomagnetic activity associated with the potential CME arrivals on days 1 and (20th and 21st) is likely to reduce the electron flux initially. However, the denser and stronger winds associated thereafter are likely to replenish the radiation belts on days 3 and 4 (22nd and 23rd), leading the fluence to potentially breach the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).

Low confidence in the timing though. The latest REFM output is in reasonable agreement but it is thought to under-estimate the impacts of the coming CMEs.