Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-18T00:17:09

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to be mainly background initially due to suppression from geomagnetic activity and distortion of the radiation belts from the stronger and denser solar wind. Waning effects through 19 and 20 July may then result in an increase, with the magnitude of this dependent on the level of transfer of particles from the CME and any high speed stream to the radiation belts.

Electron fluence values are also well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu), with relatively low confidence in the increase towards the threshold later in the period.