MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-17T00:26:58
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GEO has been at background. With ongoing and arriving CMEs expected on day 1 (17 Jul), and any influence continuing into day 2 (18 Jul), flux is expected to remain mostly background until at least later on day 2. This may then rise to give Moderate, perhaps briefly High flux day 3 and day 4 (19 and 20 Jul)
The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with REFM giving a reasonable guide of background conditions at first, before any CME enhancement occurs. Thereafter confidence is lower, but likely remaining below the Active level.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-07-17T00:26:58 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |