MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-16T00:30:41
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GEO has been at mostly background levels. Background flux, perhaps rising to Moderate briefly on day 1 and perhaps early day 2 (16 and 17 Jul), is expected to persist until at least later on day 3 or day 4 (18 or 19 Jul), as any CME influences arriving on day 2 decline.
The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with REFM giving a reasonable guide, although it won't be taking account of any CME arrivals. It is expected that fluence will remain below Active levels throughout.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-07-16T00:30:41 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |