Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-15T00:11:46

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GEO has been at mostly background levels, with a declining trend, likely due to recent CME arrivals. An increase of electron flux in the Van Allen belt is possible due to the combined effect of the CME and potential fast wind enhancement. However, a possible further CME later in the period may cause another suppression, although this CME has yet to be fully assessed. Any flux rise through the weekend has low confidence in magnitude.

The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with REFM giving a reasonable guide, although it won't be taking account of any further CME arrivals. There may be a brief rising trend over the weekend, but the potential further CME arrival is likely to suppress this once again. It is considered most likely that fluence will remain below Active levels throughout.