Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-13T12:23:00

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GEO is varying diurnally between Background and Moderate levels. The next influx of electrons into the Van Allen belt is expected to occur with the combined effect of the CME arrivals and the potential CH enhancement on 13 and 14 Jul. Once any initial solar wind pressure eases from any of these enhancements the observed flux is expected to rise to Moderate, perhaps High levels, mainly day 3 or day 4 (15-16 Jul). 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 total flux), with REFM giving a good guide in the absence of any enhancement. However, any CME or CH arrival results in REFM being unreliable later in the period. Fluence is expected to rise in response to either of these, with a slight chance of breaching the Active level by the end of day 3 (15 Jul) and more likely day 4 (16 Jul).