Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-13T00:27:40

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GEO is varying diurnally between Background and Moderate levels. The next influx of electrons into the Van Allen belt is expected to occur with the combined effect of the CME arrivals on 13 and 14 Jul and the potential CH enhancement on 13 Jul. Once any initial solar wind pressure eases from any of these enhancements the observed flux is expected to rise to Moderate, perhaps High levels, mainly later day 2 (14 Jul) or day 3 (15 Jul). 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 total flux), with REFM giving a good guide. However, beyond day 1 (13 Jul) REFM is expected to become unreliable due to any CME or CH influences that occur. Fluence is expected to rise in response, with a chance of breaching the Active level by the end of day 3 (15 Jul) and likely persisting into day 4 (16 Jul).