Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-12T00:12:06

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GEO has been at largely moderate levels in recent days. The BAS radiation belt model suggests only a limited increase in electron flux has taken place below GEO, probably due to a recent HSS. Electron flux is now considered most likely to continue to reach moderate levels over the next couple of days. The expected arrival of a CME on Day 2 (13 July), soon followed or accompanied by a HSS is expected to give a sharp decrease in flux during the second half of the period.

Electron fluence continues to remain on a broadly level trend below Active levels (1e8 integrated pfu). This is likely to remain similar, perhaps with a further slight rise possible through Day 1 (12 July), before a drop off from Day 2 (13 July) as the CME and HSS arrive. MOSWOC REFM guidance is showing a steady trend below Active, which is considered to be giving sensible guidance although it won't be taking account of the likely CME arrival.