Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-11T00:15:08

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GEO has been at moderate levels in recent days. The BAS radiation belt model suggests only a limited increase in electron flux has taken place below GEO, probably due to the recent HSS. Electron flux is now considered most likely to continue to reach moderate levels over the next couple of days. The expected arrival of a CME on Day 3 (13 July), soon followed or accompanied by a HSS is expected to give a sharp decrease in flux during the second half of the period.

Electron fluence continues to remain on a level trend below Active levels (1e8 integrated pfu). This is likely to remain similar, perhaps with a further slight rise possible through Days 1 and 2 (11-12 July), before a drop off on Days 3-4 as the CME and HSS arrive. MOSWOC REFM guidance is showing a steady trend below Active, which is considered to be giving sensible guidance although it won't be taking account of the likely CME arrival.