Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-10T00:22:12

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has remained at moderate levels in recent days. The BAS radiation belt model suggests some limited increase in electron flux has taken place below GEO, probably due to the recent HSS. As such, electron flux may reach high levels at the diurnal maxima in the coming days. With limited geomagnetic activity expected until the arrival of a further HSS on Day 4 (13 July), this pattern is likely to continue through much of the period before a probable sharper decline once the HSS sets in. Electron fluence has plateaued  and remains below Active levels (1e8 integrated pfu). A further slight rising trend is possible, with a chance of reaching Active in the coming days, before a decline from Day 4. MOSWOC REFM guidance is showing a steady trend below Active, which may be reasonable, as confidence in the peak fluence level likely to be reached is currently low.