Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-09T00:10:30

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been peaking over the last few days at moderate levels. The BAS radiation belt model suggests some very limited increase in electron flux has taken place below GEO, likely due to the recent HSS. As such, electron flux may just reach high levels at the diurnal maxima in the coming days. With limited geomagnetic activity expected until the arrival of a further HSS on Day 4 (12 July), this is likely to continue through much of the period before a probable sharper decline once the HSS sets in.

Electron fluence has been rising slightly but is still below Active levels (1e8 integrated pfu). A continued slight rising trend is possible, with a chance of reaching Active in the coming days, before a decline from Day 4. MOSWOC REFM is showing a steady trend below Active, which may be reasonable, as confidence in the peak fluence level likely to be reached is currently low.