MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-08T00:34:55
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at background to moderate levels day 1 (8 July). From day 2 onwards a steady increase in diurnal peaks is expected, perhaps breaching the High threshold (1000 pfu) at times. Electron fluence currently below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated flux), with only a slight increasing trend forecast in the Met Office REFM model, this viewed as likely too low, with an increasing chance preferred.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-07-08T00:34:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |