Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-07T00:32:18

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at background to moderate levels today and tomorrow due to the geomagnetic enhancements, then from day 3 (9th) a steady increase in diurnal peaks is likely, probably breaching the High threshold (1000 pfu). Electron fluence is expected to continue to decline at first, but later in the forecast period show an increase as a response to the HSS from CH22. However, the fluence is still likely to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated flux) throughout the period.

 The Met Office REFM model is considered to be offering poor advice, with the fluence remaining below the Active threshold preferred for day 1.