Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-06T00:30:41

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) will start at mainly high levels, but with a declining peak due to the muted solar wind speeds. The reaction of electron flux to the forecast CME and high speed stream is uncertain, but a geomagnetic storm is likely to result in a redistribution of electrons and a possible distortion of the radiation belts away from GEO orbit.

Based on this there is likely to be a sharp decline in electron counts due to the initial impacts of the CME and high speed stream onset with a steady recovery thereafter. Electron fluence is therefore likely to experience a notable fall through 07 July, with a slow trend towards the Active threshold later in the period.