Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-05T00:12:45

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been reaching mostly high levels of late. It is likely to continue this pattern at first, although it is likely that there will be a gradual decline in flux levels at GEO through the period. A recent partial halo CME is likely to arrive at Earth late on 06 July or early 07 July. This is likely to cause a sharp drop off in flux levels at GEO. 

Electron fluence will start above the Active threshold (>1e8 integrated pfu), probably with a slow decline at first, although confidence is low in the exact timing of any decrease to below Active. A sharper decline is then likely later in the period with the likely CME arrival. MOSWOC REFM is also suggesting a decline below Active, which is a reasonable trend in the short term, although it won't be taking account of the anticipated CME.