Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-04T00:17:47

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been diurnally fluctuation between Moderate and High levels. It is likely to continue this pattern over the coming days, in the absence of any notable geomagnetic activity, although it is likely that there will be a gradual decline in flux levels at GEO through the period. There is a slight chance of a CME arrival on the 04 July and a weak HSS which could give a sharper decrease in flux levels, but these features are low confidence and it is more likely that there will be little effect from them. 

Electron fluence is expected to start above the Active threshold (>1e8 integrated pfu), probably with a slow decline, although confidence is low in the exact timing of any decrease below Active. MOSWOC REFM is also suggesting a slow decline below Active, which is a reasonable trend.