Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-03T00:16:30

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently high and likely to continue to peak at high levels through this period in the absence of any notable geomagnetic activity. There is a slight chance of a CME arrival or weak HSS on 04 July which could give a sharper decrease in flux levels, but these features are low confidence and it is more likely that there will be little effect from them. It is considered most likely that there will be a gradual decline in flux levels at GEO through the period, although with some uncertainty in the overall values.

Electron fluence is expected to start above the Active threshold, probably with a slow decline, although confidence is low in the exact timing of any decrease below Active. MOSWOC REFM is also suggesting a slow decline below Active, which is a reasonable trend.