Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-30T12:06:50

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) had followed a diurnal trend between Moderate and High until the advent of overnight UTC Active geomagnetic activity, which helped see a decline into the current UTC day.

The currently observed fast wind is likely to emanate from CH18/+, and is perhaps characterised by the 500km/s or so seen at ACE and also STEREO A in recent hours. This is probably the only fast wind to contribute to the forecast in the next four days, so while there is a question mark over intervening CME activity that will serve to lower confidence, overall, a continuation of flux and fluence levels near those seen at present is the most likely scenario, perhaps with a day-on-day ebb as the chances of any transient resetting GEO electron counts increases.