MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-30T00:31:06
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has oscillated between moderate and high levels through the last 24 hours. The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) will be at Moderate to occasionally High levels for much of the period, partly due to the expected weak influence of CH18, although with a gradually declining trend.
The corresponding fluence may show a slight increasing trend through today and tomorrow, but is likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold. The MOSWOC REFM therefore appears to be offering good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-06-30T00:31:06 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |