MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-29T00:30:27
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has oscillated between moderate and high levels through the last 48 hours. This pattern is likely to continue over the next few days, but with gradual declining trend towards background levels. This decline may be sped up by the arrival of the CME on day 3 (1st July).
The electron fluence is currently at Active levels (>1e8 integrated). This is expected to continue through day 1 (29th June) before gradually declining below this level through days 2 and 3 in response to the weakening electron flux.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-06-29T00:30:27 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |