Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-28T00:10:35

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has reached high levels at the diurnal maximum on 27 June, likely due to the influence of recent CME effects. The British Antarctic Survey Radiation Belt Model also suggests that charging may have occurred below GEO. As the CME influence wanes and the radiation belt relaxes, electron flux levels may continue to increase a little further. Further significant geomagnetic activity is unlikely in the coming days, which means that this will probably not be a significant factor in reducing the flux levels.

Electron fluence values are currently rising, and may reach above Active (1e8 integrated pfu) in the next day or so. Thereafter, a slow decline is most likely. REFM is forecasting levels near Active by the 29 June, then a slight decrease, which seems reasonable although with low confidence in the exact magnitude of peak fluence levels.