Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-27T00:18:50

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is expected to continue fluctuating between Background to Moderate. The most likely source of enhanced High Energy Electrons is from a glancing CME expected to arrive on Day 1 (27 June). However this is expected to largely pass below the Earth, resulting in limited geomagnetic activity and electrons levels remaining rather low. 

The arrival of a coronal hole HSS at the end of the period may supress the observed flux levels although this is very low confidence by this stage. The associated fluence is expected to show a slight rising trend over the next three days whilst remaining under the Active threshold. This is supported by Met Office REFM output, which gives a good indication of expected fluence in the absence of any further solar wind enhancements and CME arrivals.