MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-26T00:29:42
High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is expected to follow its recent trend Background to Moderate, This perhaps rising a little day 1 (Jun 26) as solar winds ease after the recent CME arrival, with a slight chance of briefly reaching High at diurnal max. A further suppression of observed flux is then likely day 2 and into day 3, (Jun 27-28) from any glancing CME or weak HSS arrival, before perhaps rising again towards the end of the period although this is very low confidence by this stage.
The associated fluence is expected to remain below the Active level at least until day 3 (27 Jun), This is supported by REFM, which gives a good indication of expected fluence in the absence of any further solar wind enhancements and CME arrivals.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-06-26T00:29:42 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |