Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-25T00:24:59

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to continue to follow its recent trend of diurnal variation between Normal Background and Moderate to High flux, at least early in the period. While the geomagnetic forecast is relatively complex for the period, it is not expected to be especially impactful, particularly with regard to electrons. Any fast wind enhancements are expected to be of a similar or lower magnitude to that seen recently, i.e. around 400-450km/s. Electron counts should lower in response to the expected CME and CIR on day 3 (27 Jun), with any resultant increase following this, likely outside the current forecast period. 

MOSWOC REFM is currently offering a forecast significantly below persistence levels, which is accepted, with only a very slight chance of exceeding the Active threshold on day 1 and 2 (25 and 26 Jun).