Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-24T00:13:23

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to continue to follow its recent trend of diurnal variation between Normal Background and High flux. While the geomagnetic forecast is relatively complex for the period, it is not expected to be especially impactful, particularly with regard to electrons. Any fast wind enhancement is expected to be of a similar magnitude to that seen at present, i.e. around 450km/s. Probably the most impactful part of the forecast is not expected until the end of the period - any influence from the 22 June CME on days three into four, and any subsequent effects on electron fluence will probably fall outside of this forecast period.

MOSWOC REFM is currently offering a forecast significantly below persistence levels, which is accepted, although the influence of glancing CMEs on the geomagnetic forecast lowers confidence in values somewhat.