MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-23T00:30:17
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to be at background to moderate levels for most of the time, but with temporary peaks at High levels (1000 pfu) today and tomorrow. The corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence to most likely remain under the Active threshold.
MOSWOC REFM is currently offering a forecast significantly below persistence levels, which is where the current observed values lie. Therefore, without any mechanism to significantly increase the high energy electron count, the REFM model is considered to be giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-06-23T00:30:17 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |