Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-22T00:11:26

The upcoming forecast carries greater-than-average uncertainty given the number of possible minor interruptions from peripheral CMEs, as hinted at in the MOSWOC Enlil ensemble, which is proving volatile from run to run. There also remains uncertainties regarding the duration of slightly elevated solar winds, this is due to lack of reliable persistence data from previous rotations.  

All considered and with an absence of significant geomagnetic activity over the following days, the high energy electron flux is most likely to become confined to low and moderate levels, the result being the fluence more likely than not to remain under the Active threshold and perhaps display a slight decreasing trend over time. 

The latest MOSWOC REFM model output is considered to provide good guidance during this period, even though it currently over-estimates slightly the fluence levels.