Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-20T00:28:02

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to diurnally fluctuate between Background and Moderate/High levels. An overall decreasing trend is anticipated with shorter periods of diurnal high flux levels. Electron fluence fell below the Active (1e8) threshold around 19/0300 UTC and has been on a slow downward trend. There is significant spread in REFM between forecast and recurrence values, forecast values are currently thought to be giving good guidance. A decline in values is possible Days 2-4 (21-23 June) should geomagnetic activity increase as a result of either glancing blows from recent CMEs, or due to coronal hole high speed stream enhancements from CH13/-, CH14/+ and/or CH15/+.