MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-19T00:12:25
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to Moderate to High levels throughout the period.
Electron fluence has responded to the potent fast wind, which emanated from CH12, which has now waned, allowing the 24-hour integrated fluence to reach the Active threshold, as the Van Allen belts recharge to register fully at GOES-16. The forecast is now for a significant upturn in flux and fluence, with exceedance of Active likely to persist through the coming days, before a possible decline to below threshold by Days 3 and 4 (21-22 June) as geomagnetic activity increases due to the potential arrival of the next HSS from either CH13 or CH14 by the end of the period. MOSWOC REFM is providing good guidance of electron fluence threshold at present.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-06-19T00:12:25 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 90% | 5% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 80% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 70% | 5% |