MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-18T00:13:55
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to Moderate to High levels throughout the period. The unexpectedly potent fast wind emanating from CH12 likely to provide the impetus for at least diurnal peaks within High flux. This may mean that 24-hour integrated fluence could rise above active levels as early as day 1 (18 June), as the effects of fast wind from CH12 continues to wane, allowing the charged Van Allen belt to recover to register fully at GOES16. The forecast is now for a significant upturn in flux and fluence throughout the period, with exceedance of Active likely by day 1 (18 June).
MOSWOC REFM is showing a forecast trend in excess of that proposed by persistence, and this appears realistic, even if the exact timings are lower confidence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-06-18T00:13:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 90% | 5% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 80% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 70% | 5% |