Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-15T12:19:12

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to largely be at Background, until at least later on day 2 (16 Jun). The onset of the fast wind enhancement from CH12/- may connect sufficiently to increase electron counts through the Van Allen Belts. This may then result in occasionally Moderate flux at GEO from late day 2 (16 Jun) onwards, perhaps becoming High at diurnal max.  

The associated 24 hr electron fluence is expected to remain steady and below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold days 1 and 2 (15 and 16 Jun), with the REFM model currently providing generally good guidance for this period. A mainly increasing trend is then expected from day 2 through to day 4 (16-18 Jun), but most likely remaining below the Active threshold.