Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-15T00:21:58

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at Background, until at least later on day 3 (16 Jun). A fast wind enhancement, currently forecast to occur late day 2 (15 Jun), may connect sufficiently to increase electron counts through the Van Allen Belts. This may then result in Moderate flux at GEO from day 3 (16 Jun), perhaps briefly High at diurnal max.  

The associated 24 hr electron fluence is expected to remain steady and below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold days 1-2 (15-16 Jun), with the REFM model currently providing generally good guidance for this period. An increasing trend is then expected later day 2 and through to day 4 (16-18 Jun), but remaining below the Active threshold.