Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-14T00:17:48

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at Background, until at least later on day 3 (16 Jun). A fast wind enhancement, currently forecast to occur late day 2 (15 Jun), may connected sufficiently to increase electron counts through the Van Allen Belts. This may then result in Moderate flux at GEO from day 3, perhaps briefly High at diurnal max.  

The associated 24 hr electron fluence is expected to remain steady and below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold days 1-3 (14-16 Jun), with the REFM model currently providing generally good guidance for this period. An increasing trend is then expected later day 3 and through day 4 (16 and 17 Jun), but remaining below the Active threshold.