MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-13T00:09:57
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at mainly background levels through the period, with any glancing CME arrival day 1 (13 Jun) likely to continue to suppress electron flux, as will the likely onset of the HSS from CH12/- into days 3 and 4 (15-16 Jun). Electron flux perhaps beginning to rise by day 4 (16 June).
Electron fluence is not expected to exceed the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during the period, with the REFM model currently providing generally good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-06-13T00:09:57 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |