MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-12T00:27:28
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at mainly background levels through the period. Geomagnetic activity resulting from the connection to the HSS from CH10/+ or CH11/+ has been relatively muted so far, therefore any electron response is expected to be small. Furthermore, any glancing CME arrival late day 1 or day 2 (12 or 13 Jun) is likely to drop out any increase in electron flux that occurs, as will the onset of the HSS from CH12/- on day 4 (15 Jun).
Electron fluence is not expected to exceed the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold with REFM currently providing good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-06-12T00:27:28 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |