MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-10T00:24:32
High energy flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at mainly background levels through the period, with lower than normal confidence in any high speed stream connection from coronal holes 10 or 11 June. Presuming that the high speed streams connect with Earth, flux levels are likely to increase to moderate to high (1e3 pfu) levels, with the high threshold being increasingly exceeded on diurnal peaks.
Electron fluence is not expected to exceed the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold with any high speed stream expected to be relatively muted. The MOSWOC REFM model is not providing good guidance in this respect, with the British Antarctic Survey Radiation Belt Model (BAS-RBM) suggesting that the greatest populations of electrons will be below GEO.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-06-10T00:24:32 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |