MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-08T12:05:17
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at mainly Background levels through the period, with the current steady state not likely to be influenced until later in the UTC weekend after the arrival of the coronal hole fast wind(s).
Possible intervening CME effects serve to lower confidence in an eventual fluence rise slightly, but the magnitude of this is not expected to be sufficient to trouble the Active threshold in any case. The latest MOSWOC REFM appears realistic in its maintaining of the current fluence through the next 72 hours.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-06-08T12:05:17 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |