Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-06T00:11:52

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at mainly background to moderate levels through the period. The possibility of a CME glancing blow late Day 2 into Day 3 (07-08 June) would also keep electron levels suppressed, although could cause charging right at the end of the period. Confidence in the CME arrival is low, with the majority of material passing ahead of the Earth.

Electron fluence is well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. It is expected to stay below Active through this period, although a rise is possible Days 3-4 (09-09), but this is low confidence. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting an increasing trend, but remaining below Active levels, this is considered to be reasonable guidance at this stage.