Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-05T00:11:43

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at mainly background to moderate levels through the period. Although there remains the possibility of HSS effects early in this period from either coronal hole 08 or 09, this is likely to be weak and any electron charging minimal. The possibility of a CME glancing blow late Day 3 into Day 4 (07-08 June) would also keep electron levels suppressed in the initial wake of the CME, although could cause charging right at the end of the period. Confidence in the CME arrival is low, however as this is probably more likely to miss Earth.

Electron fluence is well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and has been declining in recent hours. It is expected to stay below Active through this period, although a rise is possible later on Day 4, but this is low confidence. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting a below Active trend through the next three days which is reasonable.