Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-04T00:23:36

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at mainly background to moderate levels through the period with modest solar wind speeds and only a low confidence of connecting with a high speed stream. Should a connection occur, there is a slight chance of reaching the high (1e3pfu) threshold on diurnal peaks.

Electron fluence values are following a slight upward trend, but this is probably reflective of the diurnal variation in the electron flux, rather than the start of sustained increase. There is a very low chance of reaching the electron fluence Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold later in the period, based mainly on low confidence in any high speed stream effects.