Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-06-02T00:28:07

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has varied between moderate and background levels. Under the influence of one or two weak high speed streams a gradual rising trend in the flux is expected, with a chance of the flux reaching high levels later in the period at the peaks of the diurnal cycle.

Election fluence is forecast to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated flux), despite an eventually rising trend in response to increasing levels of electron flux. Therefore the Met Office REFM model is offering good guidance, with keeping the fluence below the Active threshold, although a gradually rising trend is preferred.