Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-29T00:09:56

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at high levels and is likely to return to such levels during diurnal peaks in the absence of any high confidence modifying factors, particularly later in the forecast. The most likely source of any geomagnetic activity is from two CMEs on Day 1 (29 May) and Days 2-3 (30-31 May), although both these are only likely to glance the Earth at most, resulting in limited geomagnetic activity. 

Associated 24 hour fluence is likely to recover to above Active (1e8 integrated pfu) by Day 3. Low confidence in the forecast, with REFM showing a large spread in possible fluence values. The increase in probabilities later in the forecast reflects the uncertainty with geomagnetic activity and the charging and relaxing of electron belts during the period.