Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-28T00:28:33

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at high levels and is expected to continue at similar levels in the absence of any high confidence modifying factors. However the most likely source of any geomagnetic activity is from two CMEs on 29 and 31 May, although both these are most likely to glance the Earth, resulting in limited geomagnetic activity.

Associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout. The decrease in probabilities later in the period is due to uncertainties around the low confidence CME arrivals.