Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-27T00:31:04

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is oscillating between high and moderate levels, with diurnal peaks gradually increasing. This pattern is likely to continue through the period in the absence of any strong high speed streams or significant geomagnetic activity. The most likely source for any notable reduction is from the possible connection to the high speed stream from coronal hole 07, which is likely on 29 May. 

Associated 24 hour fluence is expected to be above the Active threshold throughout, but with a slight decrease in probabilities on 29 and 30 May due to the risk of the onset of the high speed stream and also the natural electron decay from the radiation belts.