Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-25T12:24:43

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been attenuated slightly in the past 24 hours, likely the result of continued Unsettled geomagnetic activity. Once this wanes, the most realistic scenario is felt to be flux levels diurnally reaching High, and fluence perhaps narrowly above Active, although confidence in this has fallen relative to earlier guidance given the periodic reductions in the past 24 hours at GEO, which may have redistributed some of the gains resulting from CH06. No CMEs feature in this rationale, nor any subsequent fast wind from CH07/-, for example.

The current MOSWOC REFM model output is viewed as good guidance, with narrowly Active levels the preferred forecast scenario.