MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-25T00:08:38
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed at GOES-16 is likely to continue to reach increasingly high diurnal peaks through the period due to the ongoing influence of the elevated high speed winds from coronal hole CH06/-.
Electron fluence is forecast to therefore follow a rising trend, with current values above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) expected to remain so into the period, with current REFM model output viewed as good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-05-25T00:08:38 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 90% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 90% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 90% | 5% |