Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-24T00:28:21

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed at GOES-16, has just been reaching High levels at the diurnal peak for the last few days. This is likely a consequence of an increase in electrons from the recent solar wind enhancements. However, the current elevated or perhaps strong solar wind speeds are likely suppressing the observed flux at GEO due to the compression of the Van Allen belt to below this level. With a gradual easing of solar wind pressure expected during the period, counts are expected to rise at GEO, making increasingly long periods of High flux more likely as the period goes on.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is most likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold at first, probably on a rising trend, with an increasing likelihood of fluence rising above Active during the period. This rising trend is supported by REFM in the next 24 hours, although beyond that it is then forecasting a decrease. These levels seem likely to be a little low, with fluence on the previous rotation rising above Active suggesting a similar rise is likely.