Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-22T00:29:59

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed at GOES-16 is currently at background, likely due to increased solar wind pressure constraining the outer Van Allen Belt to inside of GEO, as a consequence of the weak CME and slightly elevated solar winds. Recent enhancement have likely increased electron populations however, and as solar winds ease day 1 (22 May) Moderate to High flux can be expected for a time. The onset of the fast wind of CH06 is likely to further constrain the belt inside GEO however giving a further period of mainly Background flux day 2 and into day 3 (23-24 May). Flux levels are then expected to rise again as any geospace disturbance eases, reaching Moderate to High, likely persistently High, by day 4 (25 May).  

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold until perhaps day 3, but more likely day 4. This is supported by REFM which is currently giving reasonable guidance.