Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-21T00:29:48

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has remained at mainly background levels through the last 24 hours, as the strengthening of the high speed stream which would normally input electrons into the belts, is balanced by the increased geomagnetic activity which has helped to redistribute electrons. The strength of the solar wind will also help to have distorted the radiation belts from their natural orbits.

Over the next four days, there is high uncertainty in the behaviour of electron flux and consequent fluence. This is again due to the uncertainty in the possible connection with the high speed stream from coronal hole 06 and the decrease in speed from coronal hole 03.