Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-05-20T00:18:40

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has remained mainly at Normal Background levels over the past 24 hours.

The forecast for the coming four days is relatively low confidence in terms of electrons. This is due to uncertainties as to the capability of CH03 discussed in the 'Geomagnetic Storms' section, and then the risk of the 17 May CME. The most likely driver of higher flux levels in the four days is not expected until the new UTC working week in the form of CH06. whereupon a 550-600km/s fast wind may eventually prove capable of delivering Active 24-hour fluence, although not in the current four-day forecast window, instead being nearer midweek.  

Given the pollution of persistent coronal hole's effects due to CME activity on past and current rotations, MOSWOC REFM is not considered likely to offer good guidance until nearer the middle of the coming working week - assuming no new transients are emitted.